GUEST POST: The anatomy of a tough watch
Manchester City's win at Nottingham Forest wasn't easy on the eye, but results are all that matter at this stage of the season
You could sense the collective relief among Manchester City fans when the ball crossed the line from Erling Haaland’s 71st-minute shot at Nottingham Forest on Sunday.
There may still have been 19 minutes (plus stoppage time) to go, but that second goal for the visitors added a safety net to the afternoon that, for large periods, had looked like it would be necessary.
In the end, City saw the victory out comfortably. Look at it in the cold light of the day’s scores in your Sky Sports app on your phone and it appears to have just been City doing what City do - they went away to what could have been a tricky ground in a title run-in and just won. Those of us that watched it know it was anything but.
There’s a potential two-point lead for City in the title race and anything less than all three points in any of their remaining games leaves the door open for Arsenal to take advantage. Armed with that knowledge, every game becomes a little bit more high stakes. Early in the season, there’s leeway - by this stage, with the finishing line in sight, there’s less room for errors.
Obviously, performances come secondary to points at this stage… but, as Pep Guardiola spoke about after the game, a good performance leads to a much better chance of taking the points. City’s performance at Nottingham Forest was, frankly, not good - and the anxiety we all felt comes from the recognition that the team were increasing their chances of faltering in the title race.
On the Let Me Talk podcast after the win, Sam Lee recognised how City got better control of the game (even without Haaland’s goal): By introducing Haaland, City took away the Forest centre-back that was stepping up to close down De Bruyne’s space. With De Bruyne in more space, City kept the ball in the final third - instead of presenting it back to Forest to attack again and again and again.
On the upcoming Blue Moon Podcast, we’re going to do more of a nostalgic approach and focus on what elements make up these sorts of victories. The victories that are crucial in title races, but are almost unbearable to watch. Here’s what we decided are key to it.
1. NARROW SCORELINE
This is perfectly obvious. There is always jeopardy in a game while City are leading by one goal. We’ve all seen games, like at Nottingham Forest last season, where one team has pounded the other into the ground… but not taken their chances, only for the team that’s looked dead and buried to upgrade their status to ‘alive and well’.
If a game is ugly to watch, it has to be because City are always at risk of conceding a goal that would ruin the day. If they’re 3-0 up, they’re coasting and 3-1 might be annoying, but it’s not harmful. If they’re 1-0 up and they open the door to Mr Cock-Up, suddenly 1-1 could be a title-race game-changer.
The score is more often than not 1-0, but there are some notable exceptions. City’s 3-2 win at Everton, in the third-last game of the season in 2014, must surely count (while it was 3-1 for a bit, City had fallen behind early on AND it was 3-2 from 65 minutes onwards).
2a. CITY ARE CHASING THE CRUCIAL GOAL
Point two is an either or situation because there are two contributory factors where only one can apply - but both deserve equal weight.
Let’s start with the games that need a breakthrough. We’re talking Burnley at Turf Moor or Leicester at the Etihad in 2019…games that City need to win because Liverpool had already won and had gone back to the top of the table, but games that City just also had to plug and plug and plug away in.
Against Burnley, Sergio Agüero squeezed the ball over Tom Heaton’s line by a paltry 29.5mm and the goal was awarded by the Goal Decision System, despite Burnley’s best efforts. That was on 63 minutes, the point at which many people start to get that nagging doubt that the chance mightn’t come.
With Leicester, City found it difficult to get near to Kasper Schmeichel’s goal…and it took a one-in-a-million hit from Vincent Kompany on 70 minutes to break the deadlock. The veracity of the celebrations were partly because of the quality of the strike, but also because of the release of tension.
A special mention should go here to City’s 2-0 win at Newcastle in 2012, too. It took until 70 minutes for Yaya Touré to score the opener, but with City playing first (before United’s home match with Swansea), it felt like there was marginally less pressure. Even though we knew City had to win, it was still a possibility, however unlikely, that they could get away with drawing.
2b. CITY ARE DEFENDING THE LEAD
Remember when Tottenham knocked City out of the Champions League in 2019? Remember that absolutely crushing feeling of the VAR ruling out Raheem Sterling’s 94th-minute winner because of an offside in the build-up? Then remember having to get ready to play Tottenham again the following Saturday, knowing that any dropped points would leave the door open for Liverpool in the title race?
Phil Foden scored to make it 1-0 after just five minutes. What a platform that was to build on! What a nervy 85 minutes everybody endured as the game raced towards a 1-0 final score, despite Tottenham getting in behind the City defence on no fewer than FIVE occasions.
This also applies to the Forest game last Sunday. That 2019 Burnley game is in the sweet spot of having 25-30 minutes of this sort of defending, after 63 minutes of searching for the breakthrough.
3. THE OPPOSITION MISS A HUGE CHANCE (OR TWO)
Plenty of people have had fun digging up old Chris Wood tweets that suggest he has a soft spot for City, especially after the two enormous chances to equalise he missed on Sunday. But what missed chances do is remind everybody watching of the jeopardy mentioned earlier. If Wood had slotted past Ederson or Ortega on Sunday, City would have been back at square one in a game whether they were playing well below par - and that would have been far from ideal.
On the Chris Wood scale is former City striker Kelechi Iheanacho. With 88 minutes played of that 1-0 win over Leicester, the striker was played through and faced up with Ederson - only for him to roll what was the best chance of the game well wide.
That Spurs game from 2019 also had plenty of opportunities for Son Heung-min to level the score, but he (somehow) wasn’t able to.
4. NOT TOO EARLY, NOT TOO LATE
For obvious reasons, final days of the season can’t count. If there’s something on the line - a title, promotion, relegation - then, by definition, that game is nervy. While City had to comeback to win against QPR in 2012 and Aston Villa in 2022, they were hard to watch because City were blowing it…not because it was an ugly game that they had to squeeze their way through.
Those games are too late in the season to count - others are too early. City’s 1-0 win at Everton in 2022 (you know when Rodri definitely didn’t handball it) bears a lot of the hallmarks of one of these games, but probably misses out by being in the February of that season. There was still enough wriggle room for City to get it wrong - indeed, they would draw at Crystal Palace and West Ham later in the run in.
The same goes for last season’s win at Crystal Palace, when Haaland scored a penalty on 78 minutes - that happened on 11th March and City still hadn’t really ‘clicked’ (and they ended up winning the title early, proving what wriggle room there was still).
When you take all of that into account, have a quick look at City’s upcoming fixtures. Everybody is (rightly) concerned about that Spurs game in the final midweek of the season, but let’s not pretend that Wolves (who beat City earlier in the season) and Fulham (who were pretty good at Craven Cottage last year) will be walkovers. They’re like the hidden traps that you fall into while staring straight at the massive trap you’re trying to avoid.
Neither Wolves nor Fulham have anything left to play for this season, with European football out of reach and Premier League safety secured. A downing-of-tools is what some expect, but just as likely is the shackles coming off. There’s nothing more dangerous than a team who has nothing to lose.
With that in mind, enjoy the run-in everyone. If there’s the potential for a game to be more grim to watch than Burnley away in 2019, then it’s got to be any of the three coming up before the final day with West Ham.
Excellent piece , 4 games left for city and to quote the old cliche….” There are no easy games at the business end of the season “ ! Arsenal of course have the same issue , I am sure Erik ten Bob won’t mind doing city a favour when arsenal visit old Trafford soon . Wolves next and assuming the co op arena next door manages to open we can purchase a half/half scarf with Rodrigo the footballer and Rodrigo the singer emblazoned upon it ,from those nice chaps next to the metrolink stop .